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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-28 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 281434 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 50.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 50.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.7N 50.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.1N 50.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.1N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.4N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.4N 50.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.6N 51.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-28 13:22:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 281122 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ida, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Ten, located over the central tropical Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic has become a little better organized overnight. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for further development. However, a tropical depression could still form wtihin the next couple of days. By midweek, the system is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system. The disturbance is expected to drift eastward through today, then accelerate northeastward Sunday toward the central north Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development toward the end of next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-28 13:21:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 281121 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Aug 28 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Nora, a little over 200 miles south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Ten Graphics
2021-08-28 10:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 08:55:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 08:55:57 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-28 10:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280855 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 The tropical wave and associated low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the past several days has finally acquired a well-defined surface circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The last few visible satellite images yesterday evening indicated a tight swirl in the low-cloud field and a 27/2325Z partial ASCAT-A pass showed the circulation was also well-defined, albeit with only 23-kt surface winds. Since the time of that scatterometer pass, however, a significant increase in deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C has developed very near and to the northeast of he center, with a few cells also now having developed just to the southwest of the center. Based on the structure noted in the ASCAT data and the pronounced increase in the amount and organization of the convection, the advisory intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 340/06 kt. The system has slowed down markedly during the past several hours, likely due to the sharp increase in the associated convection. A turn toward the north is forecast to begin later this afternoon as the system moves into a break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge pattern, with a general northward motion continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance is surprisingly in good agreement on this track scenario, with only minor forward speed differences noted between the models. The 18-20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear affecting the depression is expected to abate somewhat during the next 12-24 hours, which should allow for some slight strengthening to occur while the system moves over 27.5 deg C sea-surface temperatures. By 48 hours, however, the shear is forecast to increase again in excess of 25 kt, which should act to weaken the cyclone, possibly even causing it to degenerate into a remnant low. For now, however, the official intensity forecast calls for the system to remain a tropical depression at days 3 and 4 in the event the cyclone regenerates at day 5 when the shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt, which may allow for convection to redevelop. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 14.0N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 14.8N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 16.1N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 17.7N 50.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 19.1N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 20.7N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 21.9N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 27.5N 52.8W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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