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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 10A
2021-08-28 07:54:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280554 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 105.0W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to south of Manzanillo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 24-36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 105.0 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and pass very near the coast of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit by later tonight. Nora is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane later today. Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area later today. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Nora continues northwest or north-northwest, heavy rainfall will move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a result. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-28 07:54:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 05:54:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 04:58:05 GMT
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-28 07:46:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 280546 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 28 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ida, located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico just north of the western tip of Cuba. A well-defined low pressure system located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms near and to the northeast of its center. Additional development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today before the system moves into an environment of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler waters on Sunday. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward through this morning, then turn northward this afternoon and evening. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development. However, a tropical depression could still form by early next week. By midweek, the system is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system. The disturbance is expected to drift eastward through tonight and Saturday, then accelerate northeastward Sunday toward the central north Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of west Africa by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development toward the end of next week as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-28 07:38:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 280538 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 27 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nora, located less than 300 miles south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-28 05:31:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 03:31:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 03:31:09 GMT
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