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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-25 22:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 252050 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 99.4W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the tropical depression. Watches may be required for a portion of the coast on Thursday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 99.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Friday and north-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to pass near but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Saturday and then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur later in the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and then reach hurricane intensity over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico tonight and on Thursday and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-25 22:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 25 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 252050 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC WED AUG 25 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 18(44) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 16(39) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 2(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 44(52) 15(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 6(52) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 4(26) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-25 22:49:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 25 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 252049 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC WED AUG 25 2021 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 99.4W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 99.4W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 99.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.8N 102.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.7N 105.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.2N 106.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 106.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.7N 112.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 99.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-25 19:58:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251758 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-25 19:53:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 251753 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Recent satellite-derived wind data suggest that the center of a low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, is becoming better defined, and the system is already producing winds near tropical-storm strength. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development of this system, and a tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph, offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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