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Tropical Depression Marty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-08-24 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Marty (EP3/EP132021)
2021-08-24 16:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARTY WEAKENS SOME MORE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 the center of Marty was located near 20.6, -118.1 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Marty Public Advisory Number 6
2021-08-24 16:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 241432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Marty Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 ...MARTY WEAKENS SOME MORE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 118.1W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Marty was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 118.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected, and Marty is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Marty Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-24 16:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 241432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 118.1W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 118.1W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.6N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.6N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.6N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-24 13:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 241143 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center has issued the last Public Advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri, moving offshore of eastern Massachusetts. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Little development of this system is expected during the next day or two due while it moves northwestward at about 15 mph over marginally conducive ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days from a tropical wave currently located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Berg
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