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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-24 07:44:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 240543 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 23 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Marty, located about 400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure located less than 200 miles offshore of Guatemala and southern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph this week, passing offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Marty are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Marty are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-24 07:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 240542 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri, located inland near southern New England. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the east-central tropical Atlantic more than 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development is expected during the next day or two due to marginally conducive ocean temperatures and strong upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system moves northwestward to northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located about 500 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit better organized tonight, and some additional development is possible over the next several days while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Marty Graphics
2021-08-24 04:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Aug 2021 02:37:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Aug 2021 03:28:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-24 04:36:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240236 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Northeasterly vertical wind shear continues to disrupt the organization of Marty. The limited shower activity associated with the cyclone remains displaced to the southwest of its exposed low-level center. Despite its poor satellite appearance for much of the day, earlier scatterometer data showed 35 to 40-kt winds in the sheared cyclone. The latest objective satellite estimates and subjective Dvorak classifications support an intensity of 35 kt. However, the initial intensity for this advisory is conservatively held at 40 kt, with hopes that new scatterometer data become available overnight to better reassess Marty's intensity. Marty is moving westward, or 270/15 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Marty will continue to steer the cyclone generally westward over the next couple days. Then, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn west-southwestward during the latter part of the week within the low-level trade wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted just a bit south of the previous one, near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the multi-model consensus aids. Despite the modest wind shear values diagnosed from the SHIPS guidance, Marty is clearly struggling to maintain organized convection. Furthermore, Marty only has a brief window over sufficiently warm SSTs before it crosses the 26 deg C isotherm on Tuesday and moves into a drier, more stable airmass. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday and continue through the rest of the week. In fact, the latest global model simulated satellite imagery suggests Marty could struggle to generate any organized convection beyond tonight's convective maximum period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged. Marty is forecast to weaken to a depression by early Wednesday, degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday night, and dissipate late this week. But, it is possible these changes could occur even sooner than forecast if Marty's convective structure does not improve soon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 20.7N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 20.7N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 20.7N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 20.7N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 20.7N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z 20.1N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 18.7N 133.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marty (EP3/EP132021)
2021-08-24 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARTY MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON TUESDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 23 the center of Marty was located near 20.7, -115.8 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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