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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-08-06 10:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 060836 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 133.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 133.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 132.8W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 133.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-06 07:38:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
358 ABPZ20 KNHC 060538 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 5 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jimena, located over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin, and on Tropical Depression Hilda, located over 1400 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of disturbed weather has formed a few hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-06 07:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 060538 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave interacting with a broader surface trough. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and some slow development is possible early next week when it is expected to be near the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Depression Hilda Graphics
2021-08-06 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 02:35:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 02:35:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 26
2021-08-06 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 The low-level center of Hilda has been partially exposed in visible satellite imagery as the system struggles to sustain any organized convection. Although a scatterometer pass around 1830 UTC showed winds near tropical-storm-force in the northeastern quadrant, the satellite presentation of Hilda has continued to deteriorate during the past several hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so as Hilda moves over even cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. These conditions should suppress new convective development, as suggested by the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery. Thus, the latest NHC official forecast shows Hilda degenerating into a remnant low on Friday. Thereafter, the weakening remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough on Saturday, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. Hilda is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn more west-northwestward overnight and maintain this heading through dissipation as it moves along the southern periphery of a low-level ridge to its north. The track models are still tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast has only been adjusted to reflect the slower forward speed noted in the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.2N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.5N 135.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 24.0N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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