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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-07 19:30:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
477 ABNT20 KNHC 071730 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a little more than 100 miles south of the southwesternmost Cabo Verde Islands have increased today. Some gradual additional development is possible during the next day or so but strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are likely to prevent significant development after that time. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for gradual development over the next several days, and this system could become a tropical depression by the middle of next week. The system is forecast to drift toward the west-southwest or west during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster toward the west-northwest early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Significant development of this system is not anticipated as it moves west-northwestward across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea during the early to middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2021-08-07 16:54:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Aug 2021 14:54:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Aug 2021 15:22:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-07 16:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071451 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Last night's METOP-A/B scatterometer overpasses indicated that the area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico had become a little better defined, and since that time, the system has developed sufficient organized convection to be designated as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt and is in agreement with the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Modest northeasterly shear, warm sea surface temperatures and a moist surrounding low- to mid-level environment support steady strengthening during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. The Statistical SHIPS (GFS/ECMWF), and the HCCA/IVCN multi-model intensity aids, all show that the cyclone will become a hurricane in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The intensity forecast resembles the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models, and is just below the Decay SHIPS guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/8 kt. The depression is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge stretching westward over the subtropical eastern Pacific from high pressure located over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A general westward motion with a similar forward speed is expected through early next week. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, a turn toward the west-northwest to northwest is expected due to a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge. The official forecast is based on the TVCN multi-model consensus and lies between the GFS and ECMWF global models solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.9N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-07 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 071450 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 8( 8) 39(47) 12(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 15(29) 2(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) 24(70) 1(71) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) X(32) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 35(53) 1(54) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 24(37) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-07 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 7 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.9, -105.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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