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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 24
2021-08-05 16:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 051432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 129.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 131.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.2N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.9N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 130.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-05 13:37:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 051136 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A westward-moving tropical wave just inland over Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move off of the west African coast later today. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form over the eastern tropical Atlantic by late Sunday or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-05 13:20:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 051120 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Aug 5 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hilda, located a little over 1200 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Jimena, located over the far western part of the eastern Pacific basin. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by Sunday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Jimena are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Jimena are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-05 10:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 08:41:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 08:41:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-08-05 10:41:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050841 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 Hilda is maintaining a small, but shrinking area of deep convection, which has rotated from the southeast to northern portion of the storm's circulation. A 0405 UTC ASCAT-A and 0522 UTC ASCAT-B pass had peak wind retrievals of 36 and 40 kt respectively, about 40 n mi northeast of Hilda's center. This scatterometer data suggests that the storm might have been stronger than estimated yesterday when the convection was more robust. However, given the warming cloud tops and shrinking area of convection since that time, the initial advisory intensity was kept at 35 kt, which still agrees with the most recent subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Hilda is moving to the west-northwest at 8 kt as the tropical cyclone remains steered by a large subtropical ridge over the eastern North Pacific. As the storm becomes more shallow, its general motion should bend westward and gradually accelerate due to the influence of a large low-level ridge centered well northward. The latest track guidance is slightly more poleward early on, and the NHC track forecast was nudged a bit further north, but remains a bit south of the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). As noted previously, the GFS model forecast remains a northern outlier, with more interaction between Hilda and recently upgraded Jimena, and its solution is not favored at this time. As Hilda continues to move over increasingly cool ocean waters and into a drier and more stable environment, the remaining deep convection will likely dissipate at some point later today. Additional convective bursts thereafter will become increasingly unlikely. The latest NHC forecast expects Hilda to weaken to a tropical depression later today and become a remnant low by tomorrow. This solution is favored by most of the intensity guidance. The remnant low is then forecast to open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 20.9N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 22.6N 135.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 23.2N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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