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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-07 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 071450 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 105.5W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 105.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight, and could become a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-07 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 071450 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.5W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.5W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 105.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-07 13:40:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 071140 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Aug 7 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The latest satellite derived wind data indicated that the low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become better defined overnight. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form today or Sunday while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-07 13:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 071136 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce limited shower activity. Some development of this low is possible while it drifts toward the west-southwest or west over the weekend and then moves a little faster toward the west-northwest over the central tropical Atlantic by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic is producing limited shower activity. Significant development of this system is not anticipated as it moves west-northwestward across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea during the early to middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-07 07:11:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
623 ABPZ20 KNHC 070511 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 6 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the weekend or early next week while moving westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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