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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-06 19:38:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 061738 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a tropical wave and an associated broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic is producing limited shower activity. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it moves west- northwestward and approaches the Lesser Antilles early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown/Hagen
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Tropical Storm Jimena Graphics
2021-08-06 16:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 14:38:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Aug 2021 14:38:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-06 16:37:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 A convective mass continues to persist over the center of Jimena, although coldest cloud tops have warmed over the past few hours. A fortuitous 1105 UTC AMSR-2 pass shows the center a bit west of the earlier estimates, which places it beneath the coldest remaining cloud tops. The intensity is held at 35 kt based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB, SAB and ADT. This intensity is also supported by overnight ASCAT data and a more recent ship observation. Jimena is currently moving over SSTs near 24C. Going forward, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path during the next 12-24 hr. These factors should cause the tropical cyclone to weaken, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS and HCCA guidance. The initial motion estimate is 300/8 kt. As Jimena weakens, the increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered by the low-level trade-wind flow, which should cause it to gradually turn toward the west in about 48 hours. The ECMWF is a little faster and lies on the southwest side of the guidance envelope, while the GFS is slower and northeast of the consensus. The NHC forecast was adjusted to the southwest of the previous forecast during the first 12-24 hours based on the farther west initial position. Thereafter, the track is close to the previous forecast, and in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.0N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 19.2N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 19.5N 144.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0000Z 19.6N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown
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Tropical Storm Jimena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-06 16:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 061437 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Jimena (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-06 16:36:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA STILL A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Aug 6 the center of Jimena was located near 17.5, -139.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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