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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-02 19:29:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 021729 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean centered a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves northward or northwestward before the system moves over cool waters by Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-02 19:26:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 021726 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 2 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Hilda, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Ignacio, located more than 400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A low pressure system associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms more than 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The shower activity has been increasing and showing some signs of organization over the past several hours, and environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally conducive for a tropical depression to reform during the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico by the end of the week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, just offshore and parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ignacio are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ignacio are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Graphics
2021-08-02 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 14:34:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 14:34:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-02 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 021433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ignacio Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 A large burst of deep convection has developed near the center and over most of the southwestern semicircle of the cyclone. Recent subjective satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are 37 kt and 39 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 35 kt, making the system the ninth tropical storm of the 2021 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Storm Ignacio has continued to move west-northwestward, and the initial motion estimate is 295/08 kt. Both the track forecast and synoptic reasoning remain unchanged for this advisory. Ignacio is expected to maintain a west-northwestward motion, wedged between a strong mid-/upper-level ridge to the north and Hurricane Hilda to the southwest throughout the 48-hour forecast period. The new track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track models. Ignacio is likely near its peak intensity given that northeasterly vertical wind shear of 18-20 kt is expected to keep the strongest convection displaced away from the strongest surface winds that are likely occurring in the northeastern semicircle. By 24 hours or so, Ignacio will be moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and into even stronger wind shear, which should induce steady weakening, with dissipation expected by 60 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.3N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.8N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 20.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ignacio (EP5/EP102021)
2021-08-02 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 2 the center of Ignacio was located near 18.3, -114.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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