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Tropical Depression Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-03 22:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 032036 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-03 19:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 031734 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A small area of low pressure with some associated showers and thunderstorms is located about 100 miles south of Praia in the Cabo Verde Islands. Significant development of this system is not expected during the next day or two due to unfavorable upper-level winds and marginally warm waters. The low is forecast to move northward or north-northwestward through Thursday before the system moves over cool waters, ending development chances. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by late Thursday. This system has the potential for slow development over the far eastern Atlantic through the weekend while it moves westward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-03 19:32:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 031732 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 3 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hilda, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression Ignacio, located more than 400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A low pressure system associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is located more than 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the associated shower activity is currently limited, it continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Wednesday while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. By late Thursday, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and further development by that time is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter while the system remains offshore and moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-03 16:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 14:37:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 14:37:22 GMT
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hilda
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-08-03 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031436 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 There's been little change with the structure of Hilda overnight as deep convection continues to be mostly south of the center due to persistent northeasterly shear. The low-level eye feature in 37 GHz microwave data remains on the latest passes, but it isn't very deep because of the shear. A blend of the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB, plus the UW-CIMSS SATCON, yields 60 kt as the initial wind speed. Hilda should weaken during the next several days, first primarily due to shear, then cool water temperatures and a more stable environment on Wed-Fri. Model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest forecast is close to the previous NHC advisory and the model consensus. Hilda should decay into a remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough this weekend well east of the Hawaii. The initial motion estimate, 315/7 kt, is the same as the previous advisory. Hilda is maintaining this motion as it is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over southern California. The global models are consistently building this ridge westward over the eastern Pacific during the next several days as a shortwave trough lifts out along 135W, causing Hilda to turn west-northwestward by Thursday. The only significant forecast difference is how quickly the cyclone moves, mostly in the latter stages, with more of the guidance showing a faster motion, perhaps because the models are showing a weaker Hilda being steered by the quicker low-level flow. The new NHC prediction shows that acceleration at long-range as well, near or just behind the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.5N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 18.2N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.8N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 21.6N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 22.3N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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