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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-03 13:05:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 031105 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Aug 3 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Hilda, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Ignacio, located more than 400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A low pressure system associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is located more than 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The associated shower activity is showing signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development over the next couple of days. A tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Wednesday while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. By late Thursday, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and further development by that time is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter while the system remains offshore and moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-03 11:00:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 09:00:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Aug 2021 09:22:50 GMT
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hilda
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-03 11:00:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030900 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Overnight, Hilda's deep convection has continued to pulse, but primarily in the southern semicircle of the circulation as 15-20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear continues displacing this activity downshear. A helpful ASCAT-B pass at 0602 UTC indicated the center of Hilda was located on the northern edge of the convective cirrus canopy, with the instrument also indicating a peak wind retrieval of 53 kt. The most recent microwave imagery concurs with this assessment and also indicates the earlier eyewall is no longer well-defined. While the 0600 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt, the most recent objective Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS was down to T3.5/55 kt. Given the devolving convective structure seen on microwave, the initial intensity has been reduced to 60 kt, leaning towards the lower intensity estimates. Hilda continues to move slowly northwestward, at 315/7 kt as it remains positioned southwest of a mid-level ridge centered over southern California. Over the next several days, this ridge is forecast to build westward over the East Pacific as a short-wave trough offshore of California lifts out. This synoptic pattern should allow Hilda to gradually bend to the west-northwest and increase its forward motion slightly over the forecast period. Hilda will also become increasingly influenced by low-level ridging, steering the cyclone more westward as it becomes a weak and shallow cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is just a touch south of the previous forecast track, blending the reliable TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Northeasterly vertical wind shear, related to the remaining convective outflow of Ignacio, is expected to keep Hilda on a weakening trend over the next day or so. Even though this shear is expected to subside thereafter, Hilda will also be crossing the 25 degree Celsius sea-surface temperature isotherm in 24 hours. Thus, continued weakening is expected. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA consensus aid closely, showing weakening throughout the forecast period. The tropical cyclone is now expected to degenerate to a remnant low by Friday, when model guidance suggests organized deep-convection will cease. The remnant low is then expected to open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 17.0N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 18.6N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 19.4N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 21.0N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 21.7N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 22.4N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-03 10:57:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 3 the center of Hilda was located near 17.0, -123.9 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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hilda
Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-03 10:57:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 413 WTPZ33 KNHC 030857 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...HILDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 123.9W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 123.9 West. Hilda is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn to the west-northwest expected by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next several days, and Hilda is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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