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Tropical Storm Ignacio Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-02 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 021432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ignacio Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 114.0W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ignacio was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 114.0 West. Ignacio is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight or Tuesday morning, and Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-02 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 021432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 116.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.3N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-02 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 021432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-02 13:13:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 021113 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-02 13:09:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 021109 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Aug 2 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Hilda, located more than 900 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression Ten-E, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A low pressure system associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Other than its proximity to Hurricane Hilda, somewhat favorable environmental conditions could allow this system to redevelop into a tropical depression in a couple of days while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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