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Tropical Depression Ignacio Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-03 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 030847 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ignacio Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...IGNACIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TUESDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 116.3W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ignacio was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 116.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is forecast today, followed by slow northeastward or eastward motion Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ignacio is expected to degenerate into a remnant low Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-03 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 030847 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-03 10:46:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 283 WTPZ25 KNHC 030846 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.3W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.3W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.2N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-03 07:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 030534 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean centered a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large region of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves northward or northwestward before the system moves over cooler waters by Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-03 07:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 030531 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 2 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Hilda, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Ignacio, located more than 400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A low pressure system associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is located more than 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The associated shower activity is showing signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development over the next couple of days. A tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Tuesday while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. By late Thursday, the system is forecast to move over cooler waters and further development by that time is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter while the system remains offshore and moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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