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Tropical Depression Polo Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-11-19 15:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 191433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 120.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 120.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.1N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.7N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 120.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-19 12:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 191138 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Polo, located more than 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-19 12:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 191131 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Thu Nov 19 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the far southwestern Caribbean Sea just off the northern coast of Panama is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, areas of heavy rain are possible during the next several days across portions of Central America from Nicaragua southward to Colombia, potentially causing additional flooding in previously inundated areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure could form between the Bahamas and Bermuda by early next week. The system could gradually develop subtropical characteristics through the middle of next week while it moves northeastward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Polo Graphics
2020-11-19 09:49:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2020 08:49:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2020 08:49:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-11-19 09:48:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190848 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 Polo has been devoid of deep convection near the center for more than 6 hours. However, a narrow band of convection with cloud tops to -60 to -70 deg C has recently developed in the northeastern quadrant 30-40 nmi from the center, in the same location where a 0439Z partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated a few surface wind vectors of 34-35 kt. Therefore, Polo is being maintained as a tropical storm with an intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is now 280/10 kt. A low-/mid-level ridge situated to the north of Polo should steer the small cyclone generally westward until it dissipates in a day or two. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a tad south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA. Over the next two days, Polo is forecast to move into a less favorable environment consisting of moderate-to-strong westerly shear, a drier and more stable air mass, and sea-surface temperatures less than 26 deg C. As a result, convection should steadily weaken, causing Polo to gradually spin down and become a remnant low by this afternoon or tonight, and dissipate by 60 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.1N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 17.1N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1800Z 17.0N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0600Z 16.6N 128.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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