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Tropical Storm Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-11-19 03:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 190234 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-11-19 03:33:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.3W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.3W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 119.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.3N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-19 00:14:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 182314 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system is expected to slow to occur during the next several days while it drifts west-southwestward or westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, areas of heavy rain are possible during the next several days from Nicaragua southward across Central America and into Colombia. These rains could cause new flooding concerns, especially across previously inundated areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure could form between the Bahamas and Bermuda by early next week. The system could gradually develop subtropical characteristics through the middle of next week while it moves northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-19 00:13:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 182313 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Polo, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-11-18 21:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 While the cloud pattern was fairly well organized this morning, Polo provided a little surprise when the center popped out of the central dense overcast. The system has since developed deep convection near the center, so perhaps this was a temporary fluctuation but reflects marginal environmental conditions. The initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt as a blend of the satellite data, and unfortunately scatterometer data missed again for a more certain estimate. Polo probably will peak in intensity during the next 12 hours or so before a combination of higher shear and dry/stable air causes the storm to weaken and eventually become a remnant low on Friday. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, and there were no meaningful model outliers from the NHC prediction. At least the exposed center allowed for a more precise initial motion estimate, though it ended up about the same as before 285/10. Model guidance is tightly clustered on the storm turning westward tomorrow while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. The small cyclone will likely decay into a trough of low pressure by the weekend. Only cosmetic changes were made to the last forecast, which continues to lie near or just south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 16.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 16.8N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.0N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 17.1N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
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