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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 55

2017-09-19 04:50:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 190250 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) WORCESTER MA 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 4(19) 1(20) 1(21) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) BOSTON MA 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 4(22) 2(24) 1(25) HYANNIS MA 34 X 10(10) 16(26) 7(33) 6(39) 2(41) 1(42) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 1 13(14) 24(38) 9(47) 5(52) 2(54) 1(55) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 9( 9) 11(20) 5(25) 4(29) 2(31) 1(32) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 3(20) 1(21) 1(22) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 8( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 2(20) 2(22) 1(23) HARTFORD CT 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 3(19) 1(20) 1(21) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 10(10) 10(20) 3(23) 4(27) 2(29) 1(30) ALBANY NY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) MONTAUK POINT 34 2 11(13) 13(26) 4(30) 4(34) 1(35) 1(36) ISLIP NY 34 2 9(11) 7(18) 3(21) 2(23) 2(25) 1(26) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 2(18) 1(19) 1(20) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 2(16) 2(18) 1(19) NEWARK NJ 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 2(15) 1(16) 1(17) TRENTON NJ 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 6( 9) 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) 1(18) 1(19) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) PHILADELPHIA 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12) 1(13) 1(14) ATLANTIC CITY 34 4 6(10) 4(14) 1(15) 2(17) 1(18) 1(19) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) DOVER DE 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 5( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) 2(16) 1(17) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 6(10) 4(14) X(14) 1(15) 1(16) 1(17) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) 1(14) RICHMOND VA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) ELIZABETH CTY 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 2(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-19 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE RESUMES A NORTHWARD MOTION... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 the center of Jose was located near 35.2, -71.3 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 55

2017-09-19 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190249 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WATCH HILL TO HULL * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON * NEW HAVEN TO WATCH HILL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 71.3W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......190NE 200SE 110SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 71.3W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 71.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.2N 71.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.8N 70.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 39.1N 69.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.8N 68.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 39.4N 67.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 38.5N 67.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 38.0N 68.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 71.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 55

2017-09-19 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190249 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 ...JOSE RESUMES A NORTHWARD MOTION... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 71.3W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Hull * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson * New Haven to Watch Hill A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 71.3 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday with a turn to the northeast forecast on Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula early Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected on Tuesday but Jose should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning Tuesday night. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations up to an inch or so along the northern mid-Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal Maine through Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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