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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 53A
2017-09-18 19:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 181736 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 53A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 ...JOSE PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 71.0W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Hull * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook * Delaware Bay South * East Rockaway Inlet to Watch Hill A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 71.0 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. A turn to the northeast is expected to occur on Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina this evening, pass well east of the Delmarva peninsula tonight and Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations up to 2 inches along the mid-Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal Maine. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-18 16:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 14:54:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 14:54:07 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 53
2017-09-18 16:47:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 181447 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Satellite images indicate that Jose is losing some tropical characteristics. The cloud pattern of the hurricane is asymmetric with much of the central convection and convective bands confined to the north of the center. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have found that Jose is weaker, with maximum flight-level winds of 78 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 58 kt observed. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt. Jose should remain over warm Gulf Stream waters during the next 24 hours, but it will also be in an environment of strong south-southwesterly shear, so little change in strength is expected during that time. Shortly thereafter, the hurricane is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable conditions should cause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition, which is now expected to be complete by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term to account for the slightly lower initial wind speed. The hurricane has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been northward at 8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic should continue to steer Jose northward at about the same forward speed during the next day or two. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift southward by the end of the forecast period. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this prediction lies near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England, where a tropical storm watch is in effect. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While the risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 33.9N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 35.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 36.7N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 38.2N 70.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 39.4N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 40.0N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/1200Z 39.1N 68.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/1200Z 38.5N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 53
2017-09-18 16:46:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 181446 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 2(15) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 1(14) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 2(19) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 5(20) 1(21) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 6(19) 5(24) 3(27) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 7(26) 5(31) 2(33) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 6(23) 5(28) 1(29) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 8(29) 7(36) 2(38) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 20(37) 11(48) 7(55) 2(57) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 5( 5) 20(25) 22(47) 12(59) 6(65) 2(67) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 4(19) X(19) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 15(30) 8(38) 6(44) 2(46) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 9(23) 4(27) 5(32) 2(34) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 9(23) 5(28) 5(33) 2(35) HARTFORD CT 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 5(26) 6(32) 2(34) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) 13(30) 7(37) 6(43) 1(44) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 4(22) 1(23) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) 15(38) 7(45) 6(51) 1(52) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X 6( 6) 13(19) 8(27) 5(32) 6(38) 1(39) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 7(22) 4(26) 5(31) 1(32) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 7(20) 3(23) 5(28) 1(29) NEWARK NJ 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 4(22) 4(26) 1(27) TRENTON NJ 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 4(20) 3(23) 1(24) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 6(22) 3(25) 4(29) 2(31) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 3(16) 1(17) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 3(19) 3(22) 1(23) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 6( 7) 10(17) 5(22) 2(24) 4(28) 1(29) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 1(12) DOVER DE 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 2(17) 3(20) 1(21) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) 2(12) 1(13) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 5( 8) 8(16) 4(20) 2(22) 4(26) 1(27) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 7(10) 8(18) 3(21) 2(23) 3(26) 2(28) PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) 2(14) 1(15) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 5( 8) 7(15) 2(17) 1(18) 3(21) 1(22) RICHMOND VA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) NORFOLK VA 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) 2(15) 1(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) 2(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) 1(15) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-18 16:46:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 the center of Jose was located near 33.9, -71.1 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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