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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 59
2017-09-20 04:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200247 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 ...JOSE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.9N 70.8W ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 70.8 West. Jose is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two with a decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning early tomorrow. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts...1 to 3 inches. Nantucket and Cape Cod...2 to 4 inches. Martha's Vineyard...3 to 5 inches. These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 59
2017-09-20 04:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 200247 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 59 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) CONCORD NH 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 3(15) 1(16) 1(17) WORCESTER MA 34 5 3( 8) 4(12) 3(15) 3(18) 2(20) 1(21) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 4 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 3(16) 2(18) 1(19) BOSTON MA 34 5 5(10) 5(15) 2(17) 4(21) 2(23) X(23) HYANNIS MA 34 15 12(27) 8(35) 3(38) 5(43) 1(44) 1(45) HYANNIS MA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 27 16(43) 7(50) 4(54) 4(58) 1(59) 1(60) NANTUCKET MA 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 10 7(17) 6(23) 2(25) 5(30) 1(31) 1(32) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 6 3( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 4(18) 3(21) 1(22) NEW HAVEN CT 34 7 3(10) 3(13) 3(16) 4(20) 2(22) 1(23) HARTFORD CT 34 5 3( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 3(17) 3(20) X(20) NEW LONDON CT 34 10 5(15) 5(20) 2(22) 5(27) 2(29) 1(30) ALBANY NY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 1(13) MONTAUK POINT 34 17 6(23) 5(28) 3(31) 5(36) 3(39) 1(40) ISLIP NY 34 9 3(12) 3(15) 2(17) 5(22) 2(24) 2(26) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 6 2( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 4(16) 2(18) 2(20) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 5 2( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 3(14) 3(17) 2(19) NEWARK NJ 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 2(16) TRENTON NJ 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 2(14) NWS EARLE NJ 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 3(14) 3(17) 2(19) ALLENTOWN PA 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) PHILADELPHIA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 3(13) ATLANTIC CITY 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 3(17) BALTIMORE MD 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) DOVER DE 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 2(12) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 3(15) OCEAN CITY MD 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 3(15) PAX RIVER NAS 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 59
2017-09-20 04:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200246 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 70.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 75SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 190SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 270SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 70.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 71.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 38.8N 69.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 180SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.6N 68.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 180SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 39.7N 67.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 39.5N 67.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 38.7N 69.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 38.5N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 38.5N 70.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 70.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-20 01:41:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 23:41:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 21:23:28 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-20 01:38:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 the center of Jose was located near 37.5, -71.2 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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