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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 58A
2017-09-20 01:38:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192338 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 58A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 ...HURRICANE JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.5N 71.2W ABOUT 265 MI...460 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Virginia northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located by an Air Force reconnaissance plane near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 71.2 West. Jose is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by Wednesday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later tonight, pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force plane was 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-19 22:54:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 20:54:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 20:54:20 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 58
2017-09-19 22:49:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 192048 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 58 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 3(13) 1(14) 1(15) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) PORTLAND ME 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) CONCORD NH 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 2(15) 1(16) 1(17) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 3 7(10) 4(14) 2(16) 3(19) 2(21) 1(22) WORCESTER MA 34 8 6(14) 5(19) 2(21) 3(24) 2(26) 1(27) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 7 5(12) 4(16) 2(18) 2(20) 2(22) 1(23) BOSTON MA 34 9 9(18) 5(23) 2(25) 3(28) 2(30) 1(31) HYANNIS MA 34 24 15(39) 8(47) 3(50) 4(54) 2(56) 1(57) HYANNIS MA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 37 18(55) 6(61) 4(65) 3(68) 1(69) 1(70) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) PROVIDENCE RI 34 18 11(29) 5(34) 2(36) 4(40) 2(42) 1(43) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 11 6(17) 4(21) 1(22) 2(24) 3(27) X(27) NEW HAVEN CT 34 12 6(18) 4(22) 1(23) 3(26) 2(28) 1(29) HARTFORD CT 34 10 6(16) 4(20) 1(21) 2(23) 2(25) 2(27) NEW LONDON CT 34 18 9(27) 4(31) 2(33) 4(37) 2(39) 1(40) ALBANY NY 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) 2(16) 1(17) MONTAUK POINT 34 28 10(38) 5(43) 2(45) 4(49) 2(51) X(51) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLIP NY 34 16 6(22) 4(26) 1(27) 3(30) 2(32) 2(34) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 11 5(16) 3(19) 1(20) 2(22) 2(24) 1(25) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 9 5(14) 3(17) 1(18) 2(20) 2(22) 1(23) NEWARK NJ 34 8 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) 2(18) 2(20) 1(21) TRENTON NJ 34 7 4(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) 2(16) 1(17) NWS EARLE NJ 34 11 5(16) 2(18) 1(19) 2(21) 2(23) 1(24) ALLENTOWN PA 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 2(11) 1(12) PHILADELPHIA 34 7 3(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) 2(15) 1(16) ATLANTIC CITY 34 12 4(16) 2(18) 1(19) 1(20) 3(23) 1(24) BALTIMORE MD 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) DOVER DE 34 7 3(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) 1(13) 2(15) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 10 4(14) 1(15) X(15) 1(16) 1(17) 3(20) OCEAN CITY MD 34 11 3(14) 1(15) X(15) 1(16) 2(18) 2(20) PAX RIVER NAS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 8 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 2(14) 3(17) RICHMOND VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 58
2017-09-19 22:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192048 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Satellite imagery indicate that Jose's cloud pattern has improved since the previous advisory. Curved band features have become more evident in all quadrants and the upper-level outflow has also expanded and become more anticyclonic. Jose actually looks more like a tropical cyclone now. Satellite intensity estimates have increased and were a consensus T3.5/55 kt at 1800Z. Since that time, the convective pattern has continued to improve, including a burst of convection with cloud tops colder than -60C having developed near and over the well-defined low-level center. Given the much improved satellite cloud pattern, the intensity will remain 65 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Jose by 2300Z. Jose has made the much anticipated turn toward the north-northeast and is now moving 025/07 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning toward the northeast by Wednesday morning, followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday as the cyclone moves around the north side of deep-layer ridge. During the 72-120 hour period, a high-latitude ridge is forecast to build to the north of Jose, forcing the cyclone slowly southward and southwestward over the far North Atlantic. The new official forecast track lies a little to the east of the consensus models, closer to the ECMWF solution. The center and much of the inner core of Jose will be moving over 21-22C SSTs by 36-48 h. However, a large portion of the hurricane's circulation will still be located over much warmer water, which will maintain a long, southerly fetch of unstable air into and to the north of the center. Since the vertical wind shear is expected to be 20 kt or less, only gradual weakening is expected as per the previous intensity forecasts, and the intensity models IVCN and HCCA. The 34-kt wind radii were increased slightly in the northwestern quadrant based on 14-15Z ASCAT scatterometer wind data, offshore buoy reports, and a 40-45 kt wind report from ship VRGH3. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast from Long Island to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 37.2N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 38.2N 70.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 39.2N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 39.7N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 39.0N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 23/1800Z 38.6N 68.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 24/1800Z 38.3N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-19 22:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 the center of Jose was located near 37.2, -71.3 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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