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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 58
2017-09-19 22:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192048 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 ...HURRICANE JOSE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 71.3W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Hull southward to Sagamore Beach and also west of Woods Hole. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Virginia northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 71.3 West. Jose is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into this evening. A turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by Wednesday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later tonight, pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight, but Jose should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A ship located about 170 miles west of the center of Jose recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 58
2017-09-19 22:48:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192047 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM HULL SOUTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH AND ALSO WEST OF WOODS HOLE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING CAPE COD * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 71.3W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 70SE 90SW 130NW. 34 KT.......270NE 180SE 190SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 71.3W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 71.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.2N 70.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 70SE 90SW 130NW. 34 KT...230NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.2N 69.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 70SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 180SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.7N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 160SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.0N 67.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 38.6N 68.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N 69.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 71.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-19 19:50:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 17:50:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 15:22:55 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-19 19:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE JOSE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 the center of Jose was located near 36.9, -71.5 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 57A
2017-09-19 19:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191748 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 57A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 ...HURRICANE JOSE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.9N 71.5W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Hull * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located by an an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 36.9 North, longitude 71.5 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a turn to the northeast tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Jose should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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