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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 52A
2017-09-18 13:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 181143 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 52A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING JOSE... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 71.2W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook * Delaware Bay South * East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 71.2 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina today, pass well east of the Delmarva peninsula tonight and Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, however, Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force data is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the mid-Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal Maine. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-18 10:57:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 08:57:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 08:57:02 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 52
2017-09-18 10:49:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 180849 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Jose is certainly looking less tropical characteristically this morning. The 25 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear indicated in the CIMSS shear product and the SHIPS model has separated the fragmented inner core of Jose farther to the northeast of the partially exposed surface circulation center. What remains of the deep convective banding features of the cyclone are confined to the north and east portions. The initial intensity is lowered a bit to 75 kt based on the deteriorating cloud pattern and a blend of the subjective T-number Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The aforementioned deep-layer shear and decreasing oceanic temperatures are forecast to induce a slow weakening trend through day 5. Because of the significantly cooler water north of the Gulf Stream and a persistently harsh upper-level wind environment, Jose should lose its tropical characteristics around day 4, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast follows suit and is weighed heavily on the global models solution and is close to, but a little above, the SHIPS guidance. The initial motion is a little uncertain because of the significant cloud structure change during the past 6 hours. Shortwave and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveal a more north-northeastward short term motion, with the center possibly as far east as 71.1W. However, an earlier GPM microwave image and the satellite classification fixes indicated a position bit farther to the west near 71.2 to 71.5W. As a compromise, I elected to split the initial position between the two solutions which yields a northward motion, at about 360/8 kt. There are no changes to the forecast track philosophy. Jose should continue northward during the next day or so, then turn north-northeastward Wednesday as a mid-tropospheric trough passes north of the hurricane. After the shortwave trough moves northeastward in 3 days, Jose is forecast to drift eastward, then turn gradually southeastward and southward around day 4 as high pressure builds over the northeastern United States. The NHC forecast track has been nudged slightly to the right of the previous advisory, due primarily to the short term north-northeastward motion, and is based on a blend of the HCCA and GFEX (ECMWF/GFS) guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. Based on the current forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope. Any deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 33.0N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 34.2N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 37.4N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 38.8N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 39.9N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0600Z 38.3N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 52
2017-09-18 10:48:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 180848 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 2(15) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 4(18) 3(21) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 5(24) 1(25) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 4(22) 1(23) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 9(21) 6(27) 2(29) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 15(38) 8(46) 2(48) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 20(31) 16(47) 8(55) 2(57) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 12(32) 6(38) 2(40) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 6(24) 4(28) 2(30) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 7(25) 4(29) 1(30) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 7(21) 4(25) 2(27) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 9(31) 6(37) 2(39) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 3(17) 1(18) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 15(27) 10(37) 6(43) 2(45) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) 6(28) 4(32) 2(34) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 6(24) 3(27) 2(29) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 6(21) 3(24) 1(25) NEWARK NJ 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 5(19) 3(22) 2(24) TRENTON NJ 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 2(20) 2(22) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 5(23) 3(26) 1(27) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 4(17) 3(20) 1(21) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 3(22) 3(25) 2(27) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) DOVER DE 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 3(17) 2(19) 1(20) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 3(21) 2(23) 2(25) OCEAN CITY MD 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 2(21) 3(24) 1(25) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) 2(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 2(18) 2(20) 2(22) RICHMOND VA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) 2(15) NORFOLK VA 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) 1(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) 2(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) 1(16) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) SURF CITY NC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-18 10:47:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE WEAKENS A LITTLE...STILL MOVING NORTHWARD... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 the center of Jose was located near 33.0, -71.4 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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