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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-19 07:46:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 05:46:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 05:46:46 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-19 07:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE JOSE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 the center of Jose was located near 35.6, -71.3 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 55A
2017-09-19 07:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 190540 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 55A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 ...LARGE JOSE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 71.3W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Hull * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson * New Haven to Watch Hill A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 71.3 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today with a turn to the northeast anticipated tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today but Jose should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday. Jose is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km), primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 971 mb (28.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations up to an inch or so along the northern mid-Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal Maine through Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-19 04:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 02:54:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Sep 2017 02:54:35 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 55
2017-09-19 04:51:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190251 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Aircraft data indicate that the peak winds of Jose haven't changed much since the last flight, with similar pressure values and flight-level winds. The wind speed will remain 65 kt in accordance with the flight-level winds, but this could be generous as the SFMR was a bit lower. Satellite images show that Jose has become a little less tropical, with an elongated cloud pattern suggesting that the cyclone has some hybrid characteristics. Jose should eventually weaken in a day or so as it moves north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream into a more stable environment. Little change was made to the previous forecast, which is similar to much of the guidance, and Jose should become post-tropical in a few days. The long range forecast intensity depends on how far south the system moves, but since the predicted track is still over cool waters, slow weakening is anticipated. The center of Jose took a north-northwest turn earlier tonight due to a convective burst, but it now appears it is back to moving toward the north. A continued northward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. All of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore of southern New England, but close enough to cause tropical-storm-force winds for a portion of the area. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose drifting to the south and southwest under a blocking ridge forming over the northeastern United States. Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the various consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. This rainfall could cause isolate flooding. Elsewhere Jose is expected to produce light rainfall with little risk of flooding over the majority of the mid-Atlantic coast and the northeast states. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 35.2N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 36.2N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 37.8N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 39.1N 69.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 39.8N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 39.4N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 23/0000Z 38.5N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 24/0000Z 38.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake
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