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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-20 19:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OUTER RAINBANDS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 the center of Jose was located near 39.2, -69.3 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 61A
2017-09-20 19:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201734 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 61A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 ...OUTER RAINBANDS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.2N 69.3W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 39.2 North, longitude 70.0 West. Jose is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. A slow westward motion should begin on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 44008, located about 65 miles southeast of Nantucket, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area later today. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next several days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...1 to 2 inches. Nantucket...2 to 4 inches. These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-20 17:03:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 15:03:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 15:03:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 61
2017-09-20 16:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201434 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 61 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this morning and found maximum flight-level winds of 78 kt at 5,000 feet and peak SFMR surface winds of 56 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is set at 60 kt, which is slightly higher than the previous estimate. Jose remains a sprawling cyclone, with tropical storm force winds extending 180 n mi from the center. Although Jose does not have a purely tropical appearance, it still has a warm core and well-defined convective bands, especially to the north of the center. Jose is moving northeastward at 7 kt toward a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada. A slightly slower northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected through tonight. Thereafter, the trough is expected to lift out, allowing a mid-level high pressure system to build to the northwest of Jose. This will likely cause the storm to reverse its course and drift westward or west-southwestward. In about 3 days, however, the models suggest that Jose will be caught in very weak steering currents, and the NHC official track forecast now shows Jose stationary from 72 to 120 hours. The tropical storm is moving over a tight SST gradient associated with the north wall of the Gulf Stream current, and it will likely remain over this gradient for the next several days. These relatively cool SSTs and dry air should cause a slow weakening trend, and a gradual transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is not too different from the previous one and is in best agreement with the consensus models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England during the next couple of days, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches in Nantucket as it passes offshore today into Thursday. This rainfall could cause isolated flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 39.0N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 39.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 39.8N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 39.6N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 39.5N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/1200Z 39.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/1200Z 39.3N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/1200Z 39.3N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-20 16:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT JOSE IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 the center of Jose was located near 39.0, -70.0 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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