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Tropical Storm COLIN Graphics

2016-06-05 23:07:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Jun 2016 20:54:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Jun 2016 21:04:36 GMT

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Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 2

2016-06-05 22:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052053 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 The depression has changed little in organization since this morning. The center is exposed well to the west of a linear band of deep convection that extends from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico southward across western Cuba and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently sampling the convective band to see if there are stronger winds. Although environmental conditions are not very conducive for strengthening, the depression is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Florida late Monday. The NHC forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF models that indicate modest deepening and bring the system to tropical storm strength tonight or Monday. The system is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone over the western Atlantic in 2 to 3 days. The depression is moving northward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. The depression is expected to move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed between a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Texas and a ridge over the western Atlantic. The track guidance remains in very good agreement through 48 hours. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward in deep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic. The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 23.3N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 25.1N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 28.0N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/1800Z 34.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 08/1800Z 41.9N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 48.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 53.5N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm COLIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2016-06-05 22:53:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 052053 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 2100 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 20(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 19(19) 16(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 1( 1) 43(44) 6(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 42(43) 6(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 45(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) 47(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) THE VILLAGES 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 5( 5) 45(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X 4( 4) 36(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X 10(10) 28(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 26(26) 28(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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