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Tropical Storm COLIN Graphics
2016-06-06 07:52:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Jun 2016 05:52:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Jun 2016 03:03:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm COLIN Public Advisory Number 3A
2016-06-06 07:50:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060550 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 100 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 ...COLIN CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 87.6W ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Englewood * Altamaha Sound to Sebastian Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 87.6 West. Colin is moving toward the north near 10 mph (16 km/h). A north- northeastward to northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight through Monday. On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area Monday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Colin reaches the coast of Florida. Tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (300 km) to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 42003 to the northeast of the center recently reported a wind gust of 38 mph (61 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, western Florida, eastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through Tuesday. STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts possible in a few locations. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the Florida East coast within the Tropical Storm Watch area. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Gulf coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon, and the Atlantic coast within the warning area by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Atlantic coast within the watch area on Tuesday. TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible on Monday across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-06-06 04:42:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060242 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 The cloud pattern of Colin remains not very well organized, and the low-level center is impossible to discern from infrared imagery. The imagery does show a mid-level center of rotation well to the east of where the low-level center was last found. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate the storm around 0600 UTC, and this should be very useful for locating the center. The current intensity is kept at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft observations and a Dvorak data T-number from TAFB. Strong southwesterly shear should limit significant intensification of Colin before it reaches Florida. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest model consensus. Initial motion is an uncertain 010/08. The track forecast reasoning has not changed from the previous advisory. Over the next day or two, Colin should move north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow between a mid-level over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico and a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic. Later, the cyclone should move within the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. The official track forecast is similar to that of the previous advisory and close to the latest GFS output. It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact forecast track of this system. Strong winds, heavy rains and coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 23.6N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 26.0N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 29.1N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 31.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 43.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 49.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm COLIN Graphics
2016-06-06 01:43:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Jun 2016 23:43:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Jun 2016 21:04:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm COLIN Public Advisory Number 2A
2016-06-06 01:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052341 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 700 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 87.8W ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Englewood A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. Watches or warnings may need to be extended northward along the southeast United States coast later tonight. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 87.8 West. Colin is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight through Monday. On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Colin reaches the coast of Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and Florida. STORM SURGE...The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts possible in a few locations. Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft. Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the Florida East coast, within the Tropical Storm Watch area. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday. TORNADOES...A few tornadoes are possible on Monday across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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