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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-30 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 20:33:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 20:33:04 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 34
2019-09-30 22:32:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 302032 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 The wind field of Lorenzo continues to expand, with a trio of scatterometer overpasses showing that tropical-storm-force winds now extend up to 270 n mi from the center, while hurricane-force winds can be found up to 90 n mi from the center. A cloud-covered eye has been apparent throughout the day and cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye have remained fairly consistent. The most recent Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB suggest Lorenzo is maintaining its strength at 90 kt, which will remain the initial intensity for this advisory. A drifting NOAA buoy near the eyewall of Lorenzo recently reported a pressure of 964.8 mb, supporting the minimum central pressure of 957 mb. Lorenzo continues moving north-northeastward at 13 kt, around the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its southeast. Over the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday. The forecast track confidence remains high through 72 hours. After that time, global models have come into a little better agreement on the future track of Lorenzo, with a turn to the right toward Ireland or the U.K. as a weakening extratropical low. The official forecast track is just a little to the right of the previous one and lies near the consensus aids. The environment surrounding Lorenzo is not expected to change much through tonight, and therefore the intensity should remain fairly steady. On Tuesday, the hurricane should begin gradually weakening as drier air entrains into the circulation and the system moves over progressively cooler waters. By 48 hours, the interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to weaken and dissipate shortly after 96 hours. The official forecast was increased through the first 48 hours to reflect a more steady intensity in the near term, and then is blended close to the previous forecast after that time. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 30.9N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 32.8N 40.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 36.1N 36.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 40.3N 31.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 45.9N 25.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 55.2N 14.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1800Z 56.3N 10.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2019-09-30 22:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 302031 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 1( 1) 96(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) 84(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) 52(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-30 22:31:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VERY LARGE LORENZO HEADING TOWARDS THE AZORES... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 30.9, -42.1 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 34
2019-09-30 22:31:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 302031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...VERY LARGE LORENZO HEADING TOWARDS THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 42.1W ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 42.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. A weakening trend is expected to resume on Tuesday. Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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