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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2019-10-01 04:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 010242 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 44(44) 56(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 3( 3) 94(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) 70(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 35
2019-10-01 04:42:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 010241 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 41.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 50 KT.......170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 480SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 41.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 41.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. 50 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 130NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 110NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. 50 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 30NW. 50 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 80SE 80SW 30NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 240SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 41.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-10-01 01:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 23:55:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 21:24:41 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-10-01 01:55:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO REMAINS ON COURSE TOWARDS THE AZORES... As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 31.2, -41.8 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 34A
2019-10-01 01:55:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 302354 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...LORENZO REMAINS ON COURSE TOWARDS THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 41.8W ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 41.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. A weakening trend is expected to resume on Tuesday. Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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