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Tropical Storm LORENZO Public Advisory Number 3

2013-10-22 04:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 220232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013 ...LORENZO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 53.8W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST. LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. AN EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Advisory Number 3

2013-10-22 04:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 220232 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 53.8W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 53.8W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 54.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.7N 52.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.9N 50.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.2N 49.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.7N 48.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 53.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm LORENZO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2013-10-22 04:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 220232 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 4 10 22 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 14 21 26 32 41 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 85 73 64 54 35 NA NA HURRICANE 1 3 6 4 2 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 5 3 2 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm LORENZO Graphics

2013-10-21 23:11:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2013 20:36:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Oct 2013 21:07:44 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm LORENZO (AT3/AL132013)

2013-10-21 22:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TWELFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 21 the center of LORENZO was located near 28.9, -54.9 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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