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Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Advisory Number 4

2013-10-22 10:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 220831 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 53.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 53.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 53.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.7N 51.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.9N 50.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.2N 49.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.8N 48.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.8N 45.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 53.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm LORENZO (AT3/AL132013)

2013-10-22 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LORENZO TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 22 the center of LORENZO was located near 29.5, -53.0 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm LORENZO Graphics

2013-10-22 05:10:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2013 02:33:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2013 03:06:45 GMT

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Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 3

2013-10-22 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220232 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013 ALTHOUGH LORENZO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AS A RESULT OF 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND T2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND TWO RECENT ASCAT PASSES WHICH SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AFFECTING LORENZO SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT BY 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE TO INFILTRATE THE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STEADY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN DECREASE THEREAFTER. THE SHEAR...COLDER WATER...AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. IF THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...LORENZO COULD DISSIPATE ABOUT A DAY EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT LORENZO HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 055/8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BUT JUST OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST STEERING FLOW. THEREFORE...LORENZO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN A CONSTANT SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE JUST BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 29.3N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 29.7N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 29.9N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 30.2N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 30.7N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 32.5N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm LORENZO (AT3/AL132013)

2013-10-22 04:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LORENZO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 21 the center of LORENZO was located near 29.3, -53.8 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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