je.st
news
Tag: lorenzo
Tropical Depression LORENZO Public Advisory Number 11
2013-10-24 04:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 240238 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 ...LORENZO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 48.2W ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST. LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND LORENZO COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-10-24 04:38:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240238 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 LORENZO IS ALMOST DONE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS BEING BLASTED BY 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY VANISHED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB... AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT...LORENZO IS NOW DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF LORENZO SLIDES EAST AND BECOMES COLLOCATED WITH THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER... COLDER WATERS AND DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT RESTRENGTHENING. ASSUMING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...LORENZO WOULD LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY. THE LOW SHOULD THEN DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO HAS BEGUN TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/4 KT. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED NORTH OF LORENZO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT VERY SOON. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE TURN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THAT HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 29.5N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 30.1N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 31.0N 46.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 32.0N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression LORENZO Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-10-24 04:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 24 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240237 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 0300 UTC THU OCT 24 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 48.2W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 48.2W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 48.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.1N 47.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.0N 46.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.0N 45.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 48.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm LORENZO Graphics
2013-10-23 23:11:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2013 20:35:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2013 21:07:45 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
lorenzo
Tropical Storm LORENZO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-10-23 22:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 232034 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 2100 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 8 17 18 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 29 47 50 45 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 69 43 32 35 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Sites : [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] next »