je.st
news
Tag: lorenzo
Tropical Storm LORENZO Graphics
2013-10-23 05:10:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2013 02:40:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2013 03:06:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
lorenzo
Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-10-23 04:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230239 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR LORENZO HAS TURNED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASED TO NEARLY 25 KT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THERE HAVE BEEN NO ASCAT PASSES OVER LORENZO SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER TO AROUND 40 KT OUT OF THE NORTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND WEAKENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO BEGIN VERY SOON. THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IT STILL SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS. LORENZO IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF FAST MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...WHICH ARE STEERING THE CYCLONE EASTWARD AT 085/8 KT. WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE ON STEERING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW...AND LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION COMPARED TO THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HEDGES TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL SCENARIOS AND IS THEREFORE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA...ESPECIALLY AT 36 AND 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 29.6N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 29.8N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 30.3N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 31.4N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 32.6N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm LORENZO (AT3/AL132013)
2013-10-23 04:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 22 the center of LORENZO was located near 29.6, -50.0 with movement E at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
lorenzo
Tropical Storm LORENZO Public Advisory Number 7
2013-10-23 04:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230239 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 ...LORENZO MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 50.0W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST. LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN SPEED ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND LORENZO COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm LORENZO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-10-23 04:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 230239 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 4 11 19 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 13 35 44 46 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 85 58 43 33 NA NA NA HURRICANE 2 3 2 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 3 2 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Sites : [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] next »