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Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Advisory Number 7
2013-10-23 04:38:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 0300 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 50.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 50.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 50.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.8N 49.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.3N 48.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.4N 47.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.6N 45.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm LORENZO Graphics
2013-10-22 23:10:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2013 20:36:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2013 21:06:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-10-22 22:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 222035 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 THE EARLIER TREND OF ORGANIZATION ENDED LATE THIS MORNING...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LORENZO SINCE THAT TIME. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD REACH LORENZO WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LORENZO SHEARING APART IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A BIT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO IS LIKELY MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST OR 085/08. HOWEVER...CIRRUS CLOUD DEBRIS HAS BEEN OBSCURING THE CENTER SINCE THIS MORNING...MAKING THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE RATIONALE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. LORENZO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK SHOULD BEND NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS HAIR TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND NEAR BUT RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 29.4N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 29.5N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 29.8N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 30.5N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 31.7N 46.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Storm LORENZO (AT3/AL132013)
2013-10-22 22:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO TURNS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 22 the center of LORENZO was located near 29.4, -51.2 with movement E at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm LORENZO Public Advisory Number 6
2013-10-22 22:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 222035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 ...LORENZO TURNS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 51.2W ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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