je.st
news
Tag: lorenzo
Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-10-23 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230832 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013 A TRMM PASS FROM 0247Z NICELY SHOWED THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE THE SHEAR...LORENZO IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0...45 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 00Z MISSED THE CENTER BUT DID INDICATE THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS DO NOT EXTEND VERY FAR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SHARPLY DECREASING... HOWEVER BY THAT POINT LORENZO SHOULD BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. CONSEQUENTLY...A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. LORENZO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND WITH ANY LUCK...SOONER THAN THAT. THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING IS UNCHANGED. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE DEEP CONVECTION SEPARATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINLY BLENDS THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 29.6N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 30.0N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 30.6N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 31.6N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 32.7N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm LORENZO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-10-23 10:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 230832 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 4 11 19 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 13 35 44 46 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 85 58 43 33 NA NA NA HURRICANE 2 3 2 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 3 2 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Summary for Tropical Storm LORENZO (AT3/AL132013)
2013-10-23 10:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO MAINTAINING STRENGTH BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 23 the center of LORENZO was located near 29.6, -49.2 with movement E at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
lorenzo
Tropical Storm LORENZO Public Advisory Number 8
2013-10-23 10:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230831 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013 ...LORENZO MAINTAINING STRENGTH BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 49.2W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST. LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND LORENZO COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Advisory Number 8
2013-10-23 10:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230831 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 0900 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 49.2W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 49.2W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 49.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.6N 47.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.6N 46.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.7N 45.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 49.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] next »