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Summary for Tropical Storm LORENZO (AT3/AL132013)
2013-10-23 22:34:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 23 the center of LORENZO was located near 29.3, -48.7 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm LORENZO Public Advisory Number 10
2013-10-23 22:34:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 232034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 ...LORENZO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 48.7W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST. LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND LORENZO IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Advisory Number 10
2013-10-23 22:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 232034 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 2100 UTC WED OCT 23 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 48.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 48.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 48.9W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.9N 48.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.8N 47.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.8N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 33.1N 44.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 48.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm LORENZO Graphics
2013-10-23 17:10:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2013 14:44:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2013 15:06:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-10-23 16:43:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 231443 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX BRIEFLY IN 24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND COMES IN PHASE WITH LORENZO. BY THAT TIME HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL HAVE WEAKENED SO MUCH THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THEREAFTER. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 5 KT. LORENZO IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE SLOWER MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE MOSTLY THE SAME. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST OF LORENZO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS...ALONG WITH FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO OR ITS REMNANT LOW TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 29.5N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 29.9N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 30.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 31.5N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 32.7N 44.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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