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Summary for Tropical Storm LORENZO (AT3/AL132013)
2013-10-22 16:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 22 the center of LORENZO was located near 29.5, -52.0 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm LORENZO Graphics
2013-10-22 11:11:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2013 08:34:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2013 09:07:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-10-22 10:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220833 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS DEEP CLOUDINESS. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 35 KT. LORENZO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION BECOMING HIGHLY TILTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF LORENZO SHOULD AID IN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THIS OCCURRING SOONER. LORENZO IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/7. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE STORM MOVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 29.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 29.7N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 29.9N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 30.2N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 30.8N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 32.8N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm LORENZO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-10-22 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 220832 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 5 7 14 21 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 14 35 35 41 41 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 85 58 56 43 36 NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 3 3 2 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 2 3 2 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 35KT 30KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm LORENZO Public Advisory Number 4
2013-10-22 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 220832 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 ...LORENZO TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 53.0W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.0 WEST. LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. AN EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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