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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-07-21 22:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 212037 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 27(58) X(58) X(58) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-21 22:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 212036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.4W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.4W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 124.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.9N 127.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.0N 131.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 134.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 137.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.9N 140.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 151.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Douglas Graphics
2020-07-21 16:40:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 14:40:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 15:31:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-07-21 16:38:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211438 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 A recent SSMIS microwave pass indicated that Douglas's low-level center is located very near the head of a broken band of convection which curls around the southern, western, and northern side of the circulation. This center is also now embedded beneath a Central Dense overcast in infrared imagery, near an area of cold overshooting cloud tops. TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications have both risen to T3.5, and Douglas's initial intensity is therefore raised to 55 kt. Douglas continues to dip west-southwestward, or 255/13 kt, due to strong mid-level ridging to its north. A mid- to upper-level low located northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to retrograde westward over the next few days, which will allow the ridge to take on a more east-west orientation. As a result, Douglas is expected to turn westward later today and then move west-northwestward beginning overnight Wednesday into the weekend. The track guidance all agrees on this scenario, but there are some speed differences, bookended by slower GFS and HWRF solutions and a faster ECMWF solution. Overall, however, the new NHC forecast remains very close to the multi-model consensus aids, and no significant changes were made compared to the previous forecast, except maybe a slight northward adjustment on days 4 and 5. The low-shear, warm sea surface temperature environment within which Douglas is moving is a recipe for continued strengthening, potentially at a rapid rate, for the next 48 hours. The intensity guidance has been trending higher, and the latest SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are highlighting the increased chance of RI. For example, there is currently a 50/50 shot that Douglas's winds will increase by 25 kt within the next 24 hours, and a 40-50 percent chance of a 30-kt increase during that period. Based on this guidance, the new HCCA and Florida State Superensemble solutions, and the intensity consensus, the NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous cycle and now shows Douglas becoming a hurricane later today with a higher peak occurring in about 2 days. Since oceanic heat content falls to zero along Douglas's path by day 3, some gradual weakening is shown in the latter stages of the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 12.4N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 12.1N 126.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 12.6N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 14.9N 136.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 16.1N 139.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 18.0N 145.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 151.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-21 16:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Jul 21 the center of Douglas was located near 12.4, -124.2 with movement WSW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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