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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-15 01:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 23:30:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 21:25:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-14 23:02:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 21:02:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 21:25:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2018-06-14 23:00:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 142100 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 47 15(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) LA PAZ 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 1 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X 8( 8) 16(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 2 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-14 23:00:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 the center of Bud was located near 22.2, -109.8 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Advisory Number 21
2018-06-14 23:00:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 142059 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF EASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LA PAZ NORTHWARD TO SAN EVARISTO... AND ALSO FOR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA NORTHWARD TO HUATABAMPITO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO LA PAZ... MEXICO... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO... MEXICO * ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO... MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... AND WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 109.8W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 109.8W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 109.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.5N 110.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.6N 110.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 28.0N 110.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.3N 109.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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