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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-15 04:36:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD SKIRTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 the center of Bud was located near 23.1, -109.5 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 22
2018-06-15 04:36:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150236 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ...BUD SKIRTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 109.5W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico * Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours across Baja California Sur, and within the next 12 to 24 hours across western Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 109.5 West. Bud is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to move across southern Baja California Sur overnight and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The weakening cyclone is expected to move over mainland Mexico by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday and dissipate on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now, and those conditions will continue overnight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Baja California Sur watch area overnight and Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the mainland Mexico watch area beginning Friday morning. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of western mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Advisory Number 22
2018-06-15 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO LA PAZ... MEXICO... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO... MEXICO * ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO... MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... AND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 109.5W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 105SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 109.5W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.6N 109.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.8N 109.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 109.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-15 01:43:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 6:00 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 the center of Bud was located near 22.6, -109.8 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 21A
2018-06-15 01:43:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142342 CCA TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 21A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 600 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Corrected formatting in summary section ...BUD ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 109.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico * Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours across Baja California Sur, and within the next 36 hours across western Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 109.8 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward motion should begin later tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur later this evening and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The weakening cyclone, or its remnants, are expected to move over mainland Mexico by Friday night or early SaturdStewartay and then dissipate. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Bud is forecast to weaken tonight as the cyclone moves across the Baja California peninsula. The system should decay into a tropical depression by Friday and become a remnant low when it moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, a Mexican Navy automatic weather station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h). An unofficial observation from the marina in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now, and those conditions will continue through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Baja California Sur watch area tonight and continuing into Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the mainland Mexico watch area beginning Friday morning. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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