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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 22A
2018-06-15 07:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150539 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1200 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 ...BUD MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...MOST OF THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 109.8W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM E OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico * Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 hours across Baja California Sur, and within the next 12 to 24 hours across western Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 109.8 West. Bud is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to continue moving along the east coast of southern Baja California Sur overnight and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The weakening cyclone is expected to move over mainland Mexico by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Recent satellite data indicate that these winds are occuring primarily over water within a small area to the east of the center. Bud is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday and dissipate on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should begin to abate during the next few hours within the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Baja California Sur watch area overnight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the mainland Mexico watch area beginning Friday morning. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of western mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-15 07:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 05:39:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 03:25:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-15 04:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 02:41:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 02:42:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-06-15 04:40:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150240 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Bud is skirting the southern coast of the Baja California Peninsula. There have been a few observations of tropical-storm- force winds near Cabo San Lucas earlier this evening. Since that time, the increasing interaction with the terrain of southern Baja California Sur has likely decreased its intensity slightly. In addition, convection is limited to a curved band that is about 100 n mi north of the center. Thus the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-number from TAFB. After moving just west of due north for much of the day, Bud has made a jog to the north-northeast over the past few hours. This has delayed landfall over southern Baja California Sur this evening. Track guidance remains in excellent agreement on Bud resuming a north-northwestward track over the next 12 hours, taking the center across the southern Baja California Sur overnight. Bud is then expected to gradually accelerate as it turns northward and then north-northeastward on Friday over the central Gulf of California as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Bud is then expected to make a second landfall over the Mexican state of Sonora by Friday evening. The storm should maintain its intensity overnight as the interaction with Baja California Sur is offset by the warmer waters of the Gulf of California, with these warmer waters likely supporting convective bands in the northeast quadrant. In addition, funneling in the Gulf of California could cause Bud to maintain tropical storm status for a little longer. By 24 hours, interaction with the terrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to weaken to a tropical depression before landfall over Sonora. Thereafter, the high terrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to become a remnant low by 36 hours, and dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner. Although Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 23.1N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 24.6N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 27.0N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 29.8N 109.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2018-06-15 04:36:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150236 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0300 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 25 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) LORETO 34 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HUATABAMPO 34 2 37(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) HUATABAMPO 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LOS MOCHIS 34 8 21(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CULIACAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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