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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Advisory Number 20

2018-06-14 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141452 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO LA PAZ... MEXICO... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 109.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 109.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.8N 109.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.6N 110.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.0N 110.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.4N 110.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 109.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics

2018-06-14 13:56:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 11:56:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 09:25:43 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)

2018-06-14 13:54:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...RAINBANDS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 6:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 the center of Bud was located near 21.4, -109.5 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 19A

2018-06-14 13:54:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 600 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141154 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 600 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ...RAINBANDS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 109.5W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 109.5 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward motion should begin later today. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur later today and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The weakening cyclone or its remnants are expected to move over mainland Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is expected, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when the center reaches southern Baja California Sur later today, but is expected to weaken as it moves over the peninsula. Bud should weaken into a tropical depression by Friday and become a remnant low while it moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now, and those conditions will continue into this afternoon. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and southern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. Bud is also expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of Sinaloa and Durango with isolated maximum of 3 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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