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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-15 13:51:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS FORECAST FOR THE STATE OF SONORA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 6:00 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 the center of Bud was located near 24.9, -110.0 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 23A
2018-06-15 13:51:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151151 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 600 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 ...HEAVY RAINS FORECAST FOR THE STATE OF SONORA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 110.0W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNE OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Altata to Huatabampito Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 110.0 West. Bud is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or so with some increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to move over the Gulf of California today. The weakening cyclone is expected to move over mainland Mexico by the end of the day or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today and dissipate on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area later this morning. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible in southern portions of Baja California Sur. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of western mainland Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-15 13:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 11:51:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 09:25:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-15 10:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 08:37:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 09:25:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2018-06-15 10:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0900 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HUATABAMPO 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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