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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 23
2018-06-15 10:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150835 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 The effect of the terrain of Baja California Sur and the increasing shear is disrupting Bud's structure. Water vapor images show a mid-level center moving fast to the northeast, while low cloud motions as well as surface observations indicate that the low-level center has been left behind over or near Baja. The low-level circulation is becoming elongated with most of the rain and weak convective bands displaced well to the northeast over the Gulf of California and northwestern Mexico. An earlier ASCAT pass showed a few 35-kt wind vectors within a very small area over water to the east of the center. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt in this advisory. Given the hostile environment, weakening is anticipated, and Bud is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours, and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of Sonora. Now that the low-level center is becoming elongated, the initial motion is more difficult to ascertain. The best estimate is toward the north or 355 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within the southerly flow along the western side of a high pressure ridge. This persistent pattern should steer Bud toward the north until dissipation. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus. Since the tropical-storm-force winds are limited to a small area to the east of the center, the Government of Mexico discontinued the watches and warnings for Baja California Sur, and kept the watch for a portion of the mainland. Although Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest today and on Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 24.6N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 26.2N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 29.5N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-15 10:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH BUD GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...RAINS HEADING FOR THE STATE OF SONORA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 the center of Bud was located near 24.6, -110.1 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 23
2018-06-15 10:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 ...WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH BUD GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...RAINS HEADING FOR THE STATE OF SONORA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 110.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the watches and warnings for Baja California Sur. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.1 West. Bud is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to move away from southern Baja California Sur and move over the Gulf of California today. The weakening cyclone is expected to move over mainland Mexico by the end of the day or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today and dissipate on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should have abated by now in Baja California Sur. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the mainland Mexico watch area later this morning. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. An additional 1 to 2 inches is possible in southern portions of Baja California Sur before the rain ends. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of western mainland Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Advisory Number 23
2018-06-15 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0900 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO... MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 110.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-15 07:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...MOST OF THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... As of 12:00 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 the center of Bud was located near 24.0, -109.8 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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