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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 21
2018-06-14 23:00:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142100 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ...BUD STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 109.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of eastern Baja California Sur from La Paz northward to San Evaristo, and also for western mainland Mexico from Altata northward to Huatabampito. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * La Paz to San Evaristo, Mexico * Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours across Baja California Sur, and within the next 48 hours across western Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 109.8 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward motion should begin later tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur tonight and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The weakening cyclone or its remnants are expected to move over mainland Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday and then dissipate. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when the center reaches southern Baja California Sur later today, but is expected to weaken as the cyclone moves across the peninsula. Bud should decay into a tropical depression by Friday and become a remnant low while it moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. During the past few hours, a Mexican Navy automatic weather station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h). More recently, a Mexican Conagua weather station in Cabo San Lucas reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now, and those conditions will continue into tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Baja California Sur watch area tonight and continuing into Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the mainland Mexico watch area beginning Friday morning and continuing into Friday evening. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-06-14 22:59:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142059 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Satellite imagery and scatterometer wind data indicate that Bud's wind field and convective pattern have changed little during the past 6 hours. Some new modest convective banding has developed in the inner-core region, but overall cloud pattern remains primarily a large swirl of low clouds. Some of the convective bands in the northern semicircle have been bringing stronger winds aloft based on surface obs Mexican Navy automated weather station in the port of Cabo San Lucas where sustained winds of 50 kt and a gust to 60 kt have been observed. However, those winds may have been enhanced by local terrain. Closer to the surface, a Mexican CONAGUA weather station in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of 34 kt and a gust to 41 kt. Based on these data, Bud's intensity remains at 40 kt. Bud has maintained a steady motion of 345/06 kt. No changes were required to the previous forecast track. The model guidance remains in excellent agreement that Bud should turn northward by 12 h while crossing over the southern Baja California peninsula, and emerge over the warmer waters of the Gulf of California by Friday afternoon. As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a large subtropical ridge oriented east-to-west across north-central Mexico, a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast is anticipated by 36 hours and beyond. The new NHC advisory track is similar to the previous forecast track, and remains near the eastern edge of the model guidance suite. Bud's intensity will likely change little during the next 12 hours or so. By 24 hours, however, interaction with the mountainous terrain of southern Baja California should disrupt the circulation, inducing a steady weakening of the wind field. Due to the waters of the Gulf of California being around 27 deg C, some convective banding could persist in the northeastern quadrant and some enhancement of wind flow in the northeastern quadrant due to funneling could occur. For those reasons, Bud has been maintained as a tropical depression until the second landfall occurs in about 30 hours. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation by 48 hours is expected over the high terrain of mainland Mexico. Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 22.2N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 23.5N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1800Z 25.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 16/0600Z 28.0N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1800Z 30.3N 109.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-14 19:52:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 17:52:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jun 2018 15:27:07 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-14 19:49:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 12:00 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 the center of Bud was located near 21.9, -109.7 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 20A
2018-06-14 19:49:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141749 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1200 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ...BUD PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 109.7W ABOUT 70 MI...125 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 109.7 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward motion should begin later today. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur later today and move over the Gulf of California on Friday. The weakening cyclone or its remnants are expected to move over mainland Mexico by Friday night or early Saturday and then dissipate. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when the center reaches southern Baja California Sur later today, but is expected to weaken as the cyclone moves across the peninsula. Bud should decay into a tropical depression by Friday and become a remnant low while it moves inland over mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located in the Port of Cabo San Lucas recently reported a wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area now, and those conditions will continue into this afternoon. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and southern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of Sinaloa and Durango, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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