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Tropical Depression Bud Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-06-15 16:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151437 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Bud Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Bud's satellite presentation consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with the limited deep convection displaced in a band well to the northwest of the center. Assuming gradual weakening since the ASCAT passes overnight, the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, with those winds likely found over the Gulf of California to the east of the center. The shear is expected to remain strong through landfall, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by 12 hours and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of Sonora by early Saturday. The initial motion estimate is 360/10, and Bud should continue moving northward through dissipation between a mid-level ridge to the cyclone's east and an approaching longwave trough to its west. Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the southwest U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 27.2N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan/McElroy
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Tropical Depression Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2018-06-15 16:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 151436 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HUATABAMPO 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/MCELROY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-15 16:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD AND ITS REMNANTS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE STATE OF SONORA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 the center of Bud was located near 25.3, -110.0 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Bud Public Advisory Number 24
2018-06-15 16:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151436 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Bud Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 ...BUD AND ITS REMNANTS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE STATE OF SONORA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 110.0W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from Altata to Huatabampito. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bud was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 110.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to move inland over southern Sonora by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is expected to become a remnant low by tonight and dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across southern and eastern Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible in southern portions of Baja California Sur. Remnant moisture from Bud is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated totals of 3 inches across the southwestern U.S. into the southern and central Rockies through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible today along the coast of mainland Mexico in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora states. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of western mainland Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan/McElroy
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Tropical Depression Bud Forecast Advisory Number 24
2018-06-15 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 151435 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 110.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 110.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.2N 109.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/MCELROY
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