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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-20 16:42:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 201442 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.4W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.4W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 33.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 34.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 37.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.7N 40.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 31.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 33.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-20 10:59:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200859 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Rose remains a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center located near the eastern edge of the convective cloud mass based on an earlier 0359Z AMSR2 microwave overpass. These same data also revealed that a well-defined mid-level circulation center was located about 80-90 nmi west of the low-level center, an indication of the magnitude and effect of the mid-level shear impinging on the cyclone. The intensity of 35 kt is being maintained for this advisory based on subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 35 from both TAFB and SAB. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are higher at 45-55 kt, which are considered to be unrepresentative due to the severe westward tilt of Rose's vortex column. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 315/13 kt. Rose is expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few days. By day 4 and beyond, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this track scenario through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly thereafter owing to whether Rose weakens to shallow system or remains a little stringer and deeper. The weaker solutions go more toward the northwest and the stronger solutions take Rose northeastward. The NHC forecast track on days 4 and 5 is a blend of these two extremes. Rose only has about 24 hours over warm waters and in a weak vertical wind shear regime that will allow for some addition strengthening to occur. On days 2-5, however, increasing westerly shear is expected to induce some gradual weakening. Rose is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by 96 hours, although some of the models suggest that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and that Rose could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 32.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 17.5N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.8N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 23.0N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 24.2N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 25.2N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 27.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 29.2N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Rose Graphics
2021-09-20 10:43:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 08:43:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 09:29:32 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-20 10:42:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Rose was located near 15.9, -32.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-20 10:42:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200842 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...ROSE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 32.6W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 32.6 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening will be possible today. By Tuesday, however, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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