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Tropical Storm Rose Graphics
2021-09-20 22:32:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 20:32:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 20:32:04 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-20 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Rose was located near 18.4, -34.4 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 7
2021-09-20 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 202031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...ROSE RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 34.4W ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 34.4 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Rose will likely turn north-northwestward on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated today, with weakening likely beginning on Tuesday and continuing through midweek. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-09-20 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 202031 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-09-20 22:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 202030 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 2100 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 34.4W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 34.4W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 34.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 35.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 36.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.3N 37.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 38.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 39.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.3N 40.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.2N 38.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 31.5N 34.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 34.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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