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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-20 16:47:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201447 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 While a cursory look at visible satellite images would suggest Rose is intensifying, other data show that it remains a sheared storm. The low- and mid-level centers remain roughly 90 n mi apart according to SSMIS microwave, and a 1038Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass showed no significant change in intensity overnight. The current wind speed is kept at 35 kt, with a much heavier weight on the 30-kt scatterometer pass than Dvorak estimates near 55 kt. This is a good example of the value of the scatterometer which can tell the forecaster much more about the surface winds that conventional satellite estimates can miss (even if the data is possibly too low with all the thunderstorm activity). There are a lot of thorns in the way of Rose blossoming into a stronger storm. Increasing shear and drier mid-level air are on the way for tonight, competing against the somewhat warm SSTs. Thus Rose has about a day to flower into a moderate tropical storm, and no significant change was made to the short term forecast. At longer range, stronger shear and dry air should pull the petals off Rose one-by-one, causing the cyclone to slowly weaken. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, with some small 5-kt downward adjustments. Rose could even shrivel up into a remnant low by day 5, but that's not shown yet in the forecast. The initial motion remains northwestward at about 14 kt. Rose is still expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few days. Around day 3, however, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward and eventually northeastward by the weekend. Guidance is in much better agreement on this scenario than the last cycle (though there are still some westward model solutions), and the new NHC track forecast is shifted northeastward at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.3N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.0N 34.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 21.0N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 22.6N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 31.0N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Rose Graphics
2021-09-20 16:44:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 14:44:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 15:28:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-09-20 16:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 201444 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Rose (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-20 16:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ROSE MIGHT NOT BLOOM INTO A MUCH STRONGER STORM ... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Rose was located near 17.3, -33.4 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 6
2021-09-20 16:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201443 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...ROSE MIGHT NOT BLOOM INTO A MUCH STRONGER STORM ... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 33.4W ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 33.4 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with a slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rose could weaken into a tropical depression by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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