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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-07-28 22:39:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 282039 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 15(29) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 14(31) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 11(29) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 5(35) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34) 4(38) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 12(38) 2(40) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 23(25) 7(32) 1(33) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 39(45) 2(47) X(47) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 29(53) 1(54) X(54) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 13(43) 1(44) X(44) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 43(43) 8(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 43(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 X 3( 3) 55(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 5( 5) 60(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X 7( 7) 49(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 45(45) 28(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X 51(51) 21(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) SABA 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 60(60) 13(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 65(65) 6(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 1 69(70) 4(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) BARBUDA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 1 72(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ANTIGUA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 2 52(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) GUADELOUPE 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DOMINICA 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 2
2020-07-28 22:39:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 282039 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 55.9W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern coast of the Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominica * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo northward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 55.9 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands late tonight or Wednesday morning and spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are expected to reach portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. These rainfall amounts may lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. Rainfall is also expected in the following locations: Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-07-28 22:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 282039 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO CAUCEDO NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 55.9W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 90 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 55.9W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 54.9W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.4N 58.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.7N 62.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.2N 66.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 60SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.7N 69.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.9N 72.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.2N 75.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 80SE 0SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N 79.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 27.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 55.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2020-07-28 19:44:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Jul 2020 17:44:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Jul 2020 15:27:52 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-07-28 19:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281743 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT BEGINNING TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE... ...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 54.8W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maartin * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 54.8 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high ...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and spread into the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions could begin reach portions of the north coast of the Dominican Republic early Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce total rain accumulation of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible across the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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